Marcel Coderch Distinguished Lecture, Wednesday, May 19, 2010. Aula D5 – 010, 12’00 h

MERIT Master Distinguished Lecture Series Wednesday, May 19, 2010. Aula D5 - 010, 12'00h

The Limits to Growth: was Malthus an optimist?

Prof. Marcel Coderch
Vice-President of The Telecommunications Market Commission (CMT) and UPC Honorary Professor.

Abstract
• Most of us were born after World War II and grew up infatuated with the miracles of science, firm in our faith that the same kind of minds that had unlocked the secrets of the atom could solve any physical problem. Above all, we were convinced that the atomic age had solved once and for all any problem of future energy supplies. From today's perspective, it may be hard to recall that the idea of unlimited resources, of "free" atomic energy that would eliminate resource shortages anywhere on earth by making it possible ultimately to synthesize whatever was needed, was universally and eagerly accepted at midcentury. Whatever was theoretically possible seemed technically feasible and whatever was technically feasible would ultimately become economically affordable. Cheap energy, unlimited economic expansion and global industrialization seemed to be rational goals and were equated to "progress". All this was assumed to have proved a conclusive rejoinder to the arguments of "Neo-Malthussian pessimists". Myths die hard, but the evidence of our overshoot is accumulating daily and perhaps at no time in human history has there been a more compelling need to re-examine public assumptions and to change our expectations accordingly. Malthus formulated a law that, no matter what the "optimists" may say, has not been disproved by a transitory Age of Exuberance fueled by fossil energy. This law, stated in today's terms, says that the cumulative biotic potential of any species exceeds the carrying capacity of its habitat, and it applies to each and every species, including us. It is certainly not easy to take a society conditioned to believe that every problem has a technological solution and turn it around to accept that a major change of orientation has become a necessity. Nevertheless, a realistic awareness of our ecological predicament and of our own nature is the best means of equipping ourselves to adapt to an uncertain future brought upon us by our past "successes". It is incumbent upon the scientific community to find, promote and facilitate this much needed change of orientation.